11 September 2024 Patryk Figiel  - Dominik Piechowiak Energy and Infrastructure

Updated Polish National Energy and Climate Plan

Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) is setting the stage for an accelerated energy transformation, offering new opportunities for renewable energy investment. As required by the EU, Poland’s NECP outlines its strategic vision for energy and climate.

The plan includes a promising baseline scenario and an even more ambitious “With Additional Measures” (WAM) scenario, soon to be submitted to the European Commission. This WAM scenario aims to significantly boost renewable energy development, making now the perfect time to invest in Poland’s energy market.

Key points of the NECP (WAM) scenario

Investment outlays: PLN 792 billion by 2030, driving an average GDP growth of 4.13%, and cumulative investments of PLN 2.9 trillion by 2040. The power sector is the main focus, with PLN 1.2 trillion for transmission, distribution, and capacity expansion from 2021 to 2040.

Renewable Energy Sources (RES): Expected substantial growth: 

  • Photovoltaic: 29 GW by 2030; 46.2 GW by 2040.
  • Onshore wind farms: 19 GW by 2030; 25.8 GW by 2040.
  • Offshore wind farms: 9 GW by 2030; 17.9 GW by 2040.
  • Biomass: 5 GW by 2030; 1.6 GW by 2040.
  • Hydro energy: 1 GW by 2030; 1.2 GW by 2040.

Coal dependency: Expected to decrease from 61% in 2023 to 22% by 2040. Natural gas will make up 16%, energy storage and pumped-storage plants 4%, and other sources 2%.

Poland vs. EU goals

Poland’s NECP aims to exceed EU goals in RES share in electricity generation but falls short in total energy consumption, heating and cooling, and greenhouse gas reductions.

Decrease in coal dependency

Energy production from coal is expected to decrease dramatically from 61% in 2023 to only 22% by 2040, creating more room for alternative energy sources. Natural gas is predicted to account for 16%, while energy storage facilities and pumped-storage power plants will comprise 4%, alongside other sources at 2%.

Next steps

The updated NECP (WAM) is still under negotiation and it could face challenges due to Poland’s reliance on coal. However, the government’s commitment to renewable energy signifies a shift towards sustainability. The NECP offers new opportunities for both domestic and international players in the renewable energy sector, thereby enhancing Poland's position as a prime destination for renewable energy investment.